Speaker analyzes elections, voting trends

Speaker analyzes elections, voting trends

Allison Mueller

Michaela Gaffke / Winonan

Winona State University hosted Larry Jacobs, a 15-time published author and director of political programs at the University of Minnesota. Jacobs discussed the extraordinary elections and the possibility of a win for Trump.

Jacobs said that this was due to “party loyalty and frustrated Democrat voters,” and also that “the only factor holding Trump back is his lack of campaigning.”

Jacobs presented “The Extraordinary Election of 2016 and its ordinary explanations,” to break down the election to a full audience in Stark Hall.

Ninety percent of voters will stick with their party, according to Jacobs, whereas 80 percent of people stick with their party when voting for President, House and Senate.

Only 19 percent of people say they trust the American government, Jacobs said, which is a huge decline from 70-75 percent in 1958.

Forty-six percent of voters in 2004 and 75 percent in 2008 believed that the country is on the wrong track.

“Trump has gained popularity in channeling to the voters who say America needs to be fixed, and people are becoming attracted to the ‘strong leader’ idea,” Jacobs said.

Trump’s campaign is disorganized, and he lacks modern campaigning skills, and that gives Clinton an advantage, according to Jacobs.

“Campaigning matters, and Clinton is invested while Trump is not,” Jacobs said.

Trump was nominated over the shrieks of his party, and this could be because very conservative Republicans and very liberal Democrats are the ones who show up for caucuses. There has never been this much backlash over a candidate before, according to Jacobs.

Hillary Clinton is a fighter for women and Trump has unleashed the fury of the working class, Jacobs said.

Trump has a large amount of white voters over racial resentment, while Clinton attracts minorities.

Between 18 and 20 percent of voters are undecided or supporting the third party. Third party support tends to shrink up when voting day approaches, Jacobs said.

“It is a close battle, and it will come down to few votes in few states,” Jacobs said.

“Democracy doesn’t work if you don’t participate. If a person doesn’t register early, then they tend not to vote,”Jacobs said.

According to Kara Lindaman, staff representative for the American Democracy Project 909 voters were registered on campus Wednesday.

Jacobs is the Walter F. and Joan Mondale chair for political studies and director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance in the Hubert H. Humphrey School and the department of political science at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis.

He has published 15 books and volumes and dozens of articles on elections, legislative and presidential politics, elections, public opinion and public policies. Dr. Jacobs’ research has been published and discussed in a number of mass media outlets.

This event was a part of the Lyceum Series, aimed to provide cultural enrichment and educational opportunities on campus.

-By Michaela Gaffke